Geopolitical Shocks and Structural Resilience

The discussion turns to geopolitical risk and which assets are most vulnerable to energy-driven supply shocks. Balance sheets reliant on just-in-time supply systems are identified as most at risk. Conversely, flexible, inflation-resilient real return strategies are well-suited to the new regime of higher inflation and volatility. The stagflation debate is addressed, with the speaker favouring a sequential inflation-then-growth-shock scenario over a persistent stagflationary one.