Key Risks to Deal Making: AI Disruption and the Iran Conflict

The panel debates the biggest challenges to new deal activity. Till Schweizer highlights the Iran conflict and resulting oil price risk as a potential stagflation trigger, while also flagging AI as a structural threat requiring long-term conviction. He suggests that consumer businesses spun off from large European conglomerates — such as those from Unilever, Nestle, and Bayer — may represent more attractive LBO targets. Matthew Layton adds that Europe's CLO portfolios are better insulated from AI and software risk due to smaller sector exposure, though only the healthiest companies in challenged sectors will access the broadly syndicated market.