According to recent data, banks in Italy have registered a reduction in the NPE stock of 5.1 billion euros between March 2023 and June 2024, in sharp contrast to the main European banks which, with German (+9.4 billion) and French (+8.8 billion) leading the way, recorded a total increase of 16 billion euros in non-performing exposures. This improvement is the result of a long de-risking process undertaken by Italian banks, in collaboration with specialised operators, which in recent years have had a significant growth. Our panel will discuss the recent and significant wave of market consolidation, leading to the creation of more robust players prepared to tackle the challenges of the industry's transformation and therefore capitalise on emerging business opportunities.

• What is the current state of the restructuring market in Italy, and how is it expected to change in the next 12 months?
• Observing the growth of the UTP market, a very residual NPL one, and the improved status of Stage 2 loans in Italy 
• Business transformation best practices and corporate turnarounds 
• How are innovation, technology, AI and sustainability impacting practices and existing eco/systems?

Italy’s “Code on Business Distress and Insolvency” has been partly amended and rectified just over two years after its entry into force on July 15, 2022. The changes are primarily intended to take stock of the initial application of the Code, in order to clarify certain interpretative issues and further align it with the EU Insolvency Directive, which the Code sought to implement. Our panel will discuss how these amendments, introduced by Legislative Decree No. 136 of September 13, 2024, together with certain recent Italian court decisions, will have  important implications for the enforceability of guarantees.

• Which are the most salient changes to the Code?
• How are they going to impact the use of debt restructuring agreements approved by courts?
• The importance of promoting a more cooperative approach between debtors and banks that may lead to the early identification of crises
• Is greater attention being paid to out-of-court instruments, helping to streamline the justice timescale in Italy?

Private credit in Italy is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by increased demand from businesses seeking alternative financing options due to tighter bank lending standards, with a particular focus on sectors like real estate, mid-market companies, and potentially more niche areas where traditional banks might not readily lend. At the same time, Italy, with its high levels of corporate debt and a significant number of SMEs facing financial challenges, presents a particularly fertile ground for distressed M&A activity. This growth could be further fuelled by partnerships between private credit funds and established banks to leverage their origination capabilities and reach a wider range of borrowers. 

The panel will cover:

• How are shifts in the Italian economy influencing the private credit market and financing structures? Is sustainability becoming a key driver of investment decisions in financing practices? 
• Branching out from unitranche to other types of financing, including junior-level capital such as PIK instruments, traditional equity co-investments and debt- like preferred equity instruments
• Which sectors will see M&A arising from businesses in distress?  
• What are the challenges in buying distressed assets and working on turn-around situations?  

The positive start to 2025 notwithstanding, shifts in economic conditions in Italy are expected during the course of the year, driven by factors like high corporate debt levels, struggling SMEs, family-owned business succession issues and the overall economic (and political) uncertainty in Europe. Sectors like manufacturing and construction, retail, fashion, hospitality could see a higher concentration of distressed deals due to their vulnerability to economic fluctuations - how to assess risks and execute deals effectively? Our speakers will address the most likely outlook for the market in 2025, highlighting the sectors and industries that face the harshest challenges – but which might also see opportunities arising in the mid-term.

• How are businesses in Italy coping with the pressure and what’s the view from investors in those spaces?
• Sectorial analysis: Real estate, construction, automotive, retail and fashion
• Opportunities in infrastructure, green energy and tech/digital investments 
• Which tangible actions can companies take to navigate this environment and safeguard sustainable profits?