The tide is turning for private equity in 2025. According to Mergermarket data, in 2024, sponsor-led buyouts enjoyed a comeback, rising 32% to USD 286.6bn compared to the previous year. A combination of lowering interest rates, large amounts of capital requiring deployment, an expected increase in exits and anticipated favourable market dynamics post the US election suggests; that there will be significant opportunity in both buyout and middle market private equity. Our panel of leading GPs will unpack what to expect in the year ahead.

• What are the main drivers of deal flow in the US, and how are macro, political, and regulatory issues impacting private equity dealmaking?
• Which sectors show promising growth in the next six months?
• Will improved financing costs and a convergence of buyer and seller price expectations improve dealmaking and exit activity?
• Will 2025 be a golden vintage year for private markets?

In 2024, sponsor-led exits totalled USD 258bn, up 24% from 2023, according to Mergermarket data. The exit market is poised for a resurgence in 2025, buoyed by an expected rise in sponsor led exits as well as PE-backed IPOs as GPs tap into public markets to realize investments and return money to their investors.  An exit backlog remains, however, caused by a persistent valuation gap between buyers and sellers, although this is expected to narrow as market conditions improve. How will the exit market continue to play out as we head into the second quarter of 2025? Our panel of experts will discuss:

• Exit outlook- how will the exit backlog, longer hold periods for prized assets and aging portfolios from the past two years impact deal activity?
• Will exit activity pick up in 2025 as financing conditions ease?
• Will alternative liquidity structures such as continuation vehicles and NAV facilities continue to play a dominant role?
• Is the IPO landscape set for a significant increase in 2025? What is on the pipeline?

Slowing capital inflows from institutional investors and challenging economic conditions have led to private equity GPs seeking alternative funding and new sources of capital through private wealth strategies, the launch of retail-investor focused funds and various products to make private markets more accessible. In tandem, private wealth investors have increased their exposure to private markets and adopted institutional strategies in a bid for higher returns. Our panel of experts will look at the trends shaping the democratization of private equity. 

• What is driving GP’s push into private wealth?
• The continued rise of 40 Act funds- what is propelling growth and what are the benefits over a traditional closed-end fund?
• How do smaller retail investors plan to invest in the space? What challenges do they face and where are the education gaps?
• What does the future hold for the democratization of private equity? What trends and products do we expect to see in the future?

The secondary market reached record transaction levels in 2024 and 2025 is expected to bring about further opportunities as GPs and LPs increasingly embrace secondaries as a permanent tool in portfolio management and liquidity plans.  Our panel of secondaries experts will take stock of the growing LP and GP secondary market in the US, and touch upon changing dynamics as more mainstream PE players enter the space.

• GP-led vs LP-led – which will take preference in 2025 and how have market dynamics changed in the past year?
• How will GP-led and LP-led transactions develop in 2025 as the M&A and IPO markets come back?
• How are LPs continuing to leverage secondaries for liquidity, and where do they see the best opportunities?
• As more new entrants embrace the secondaries market, what are some strategies for success?

Private credit continues to be a popular asset class, and with an expected resurgence in M&A and leveraged buyouts in 2025, it is expected that direct lending deal flow will continue to increase in line with the substantial amounts of private equity dry powder in need of deployment and pressure to return capital to LPs.  Continued consolidation in the market is also expected, with big debt managers being very acquisitive. Our panel of private credit managers will discuss: 

• What are the factors that continue to drive private credit deal flow?
• How is the private credit market diversifying, and what sub-asset classes are the most attractive to GPs?
• Will we see further market consolidation amongst private credit funds, and what does this mean for the market’s competitive landscape?
• Are we still in the golden era for private credit? What should market participants expect in 2025?

With longer holding periods and increased competition for attractive, high-quality targets, GPs have had to reassess their strategies towards value creation through enhancing sector and operational capabilities, collaborating with management, cost optimization and applying technologies to streamline portfolios. Our industry experts will provide a behind the scenes look at their value creation playbooks and discuss how to generate alpha in a time of flux. 

• How are GPs rewriting their value creation playbooks?
• What represents best-in-class in terms of operational capabilities?
• To what extent are GPs leveraging AI tools to enhance operations?
• From supply-chain management to human capital- what value creation levers are operating partners focusing on in 2025?

Whilst many North America focused LPs remain overallocated to private equity, approaches towards portfolio construction have shifted in line with market conditions and limited distributions, with LPs reducing their number of GP relationships, investing with fewer emerging managers, and diversifying beyond large traditional buyouts towards the middle market as the upper end of the market becomes increasingly crowded. Our panel of leading regional allocators will discuss where they are putting their money in the year ahead.

• How have approaches towards manager selection and portfolio construction shifted? Are LPs prioritizing existing relationships or tapping into new and emerging managers?
• The shift towards the middle market- what is promoting this and is this trend set to continue?
• What is the outlook for exits and distributions in the next six months, how did 2024 end up?
• How do LPs think about portfolio diversification in the context co-investment and secondaries programmes?