2025 Highlights | Debtwire Private Credit Forum Europe 2026

The maturing European private credit market

Globally, the private credit market is set to grow to US$2.8 trillion by 2028. It is expected that market will continue to expand into new areas, including asset-backed finance structures and more bespoke deals. Leading GPs explored what to expect in the evolving landscape of private credit.

Resilience Keeps Private Credit Attractive Amid Macro Shifts

Luis stresses that private credit isn’t tied to GDP performance, highlighting its resilience through past crises. Smart sector concentration, lower default rates compared to public markets, and strong recovery processes make direct lending a compelling asset class. Even as the market matures, these factors continue to drive investor interest and relative value.

Luis Mayans Managing Director, Corporate and Infrastructure Credit, CDPQ

Scale Drives Growth as Mid-Sized Lenders Face Pressure

Natalia predicts consolidation, noting that scale is critical in private credit. Large providers are positioned to capture a growing market, while niche players with strong underwriting will thrive. Mid-sized firms, however, face challenges as investors concentrate capital into fewer funds—fuelling the rationale for mergers and acquisitions.

Natalia Tsitoura Partner and Head of European Origination, Apollo Capital Solutions

Private Credit and Banks: From Rivals to “Frenemies”

Private credit and the broadly syndicated market increasingly coexist—even within the same capital structures—through hybrid deals like first-lien syndicated loans paired with second-lien private credit. While private credit’s flexibility and certainty have helped it capture market share, a robust syndicated market remains vital for financing acquisitions. Collaboration, not competition, is shaping the future of this ecosystem.

David Witkin Managing Director, Head of Europe, Credit Investments, PSP Investments

Middle-market focus - A changing landscape

The European private credit middle market has captured the attention of lenders and sponsors alike, as muted deal flow and M&A activity and the resurgence of the BSL market has prompted a shift from the large-cap into the mid-cap. Mid-market GPs discussed the opportunity set and challenges on the horizon.

Large-Cap Funds Edge Into Mid-Market, Raising Competitive Pressure

Mega-funds, driven by scale and operational efficiency, are increasingly targeting large-cap deals and competing with the broadly syndicated market. While their presence has pressured traditional mid-market players in recent years, this may ease if M&A volumes rebound and big funds refocus on large transactions. For now, mid-market lenders face a shifting landscape where flexibility and borrower solutions remain key differentiators.

Reza Zargham Managing Director; Head of Strategic Capital & Alternative Finance, Barclays

Investor Education and Geopolitics Accelerate European Fundraising

LPs are becoming more sophisticated, distinguishing between mid-market and large-cap strategies as performance dispersion grows. Recent geopolitical events have nudged investors to diversify beyond the US, speeding interest in European private credit. While the US remains more mature, Europe is gaining traction as allocators seek balanced exposure across regions.

Stuart Hawkins Head of Private Credit UK & Managing Director, Ardian

The rise of retail investors in European private credit

The rapid growth of private credit has meant that the investor base is broadening beyond institutional investors. Whilst it remains an emerging trend in Europe compared to the US, retail investors are now able to access private markets more easily and it is expected that momentum in the market will only increase.

Evergreen Funds Accelerate Retail Access to Private Credit

Sophie highlights the growing “democratization” of private markets, driven by evergreen fund structures and strong income returns. In Europe, demand for private credit from sub-professional investors is four times higher than for private equity, thanks to net yields of around 10% versus 4–5% in public markets. As retail investors increasingly view private credit as a fixed-income replacement rather than a high-risk alternative, momentum is set to accelerate.

Sophie Dodson Managing Director, Head of Global Wealth Europe, Carlyle

Designing Semi-Liquid Structures to Balance Access and Stability

Solving liquidity mismatch in private credit comes down to product design. Semi-liquid or “perpetual” funds offer periodic liquidity while protecting portfolio integrity through redemption caps and partial allocation to liquid loans. Education is key, as investors adapt to structures that differ from traditional drawdown models—an evolution already well underway in the US and now gaining traction in Europe.

Dicken Gilmour Principal, Blackstone Credit & Insurance (BXCI)

Retail Capital Doesn’t Limit Direct Lending Flexibility

Daniel explains that perpetual retail vehicles are strategically aligned with institutional drawdown funds, enabling consistent deployment without sacrificing flexibility. Scale and origination capabilities—supported by expanded underwriting teams and local offices—position managers to capture growing opportunities as direct lenders gain market share over banks and move into larger deals. Selectivity and proven underwriting remain critical.

Daniel Sinclair Partner, Ares Management

Debtwire Private Credit Forum Europe 2026

Highlights from 2025