AVCJ Private Equity Forum Japan 2025

Connect, strategise, and succeed in Japan’s private markets

location_on Conrad Hotel, Tokyo Map

Agenda

08.00 - 08.50
JST

Registration and refreshments

09.30 - 10.15
JST

Global outlook: Positioning for the long term

An increasingly unpredictable geopolitical environment has turned trade, supply chains, and economic stability into front-of-mind issues for private equity investors. Global deal volumes improved as 2024 progressed, so GPs entered 2025 looking to maintain momentum – despite those looming macro risks and recognising the need to convince LPs of their ability to outperform in changing conditions. Adaptability, innovation, genuine sector and domain expertise, and demonstrable valuation capabilities are the name of the game.

  • What macro risk questions are being asked now that weren’t asked before?

  • How are GPs incorporating artificial intelligence into internal processes?

  • Which exit channels will be most prolific over the next 12 months?

  • What are the implications of a handful of large global GPs dominating the asset class?

10.15 - 10.45
JST

Networking break

10.45 - 11.30
JST

Japan update: Looking for equilibrium

Japan’s private equity story is well known: a combination of government policy, activist pressure, and stock market reforms – plus increasing acceptance of the asset class – have set an underpenetrated market on course for deeper penetration. Equally, there are frequently voiced concerns as to whether the volume of capital earmarked for deployment exceeds deal capacity. The next cycle will be a critical in terms of establishing whether the current bullishness can be sustained.

  • Are valuations becoming tough to justify in the context of growth expectations?

  • How can portfolio companies drive expansion outside of Japan?

  • Are the global GP versus local GP competitive dynamics still clear cut? 

  • Is there space – and enough deal flow – for sector specialists in Japan?

11.30 - 12.00
JST

Executive address

Harold Hope
Harold Hope Partner, Global Head of Vintage Strategies, Goldman Sachs Asset Management
12.00 - 12.45
JST

GP-led secondaries: Permanent revolution?

Private equity firms are increasingly turning to the secondaries market as a means of delivering liquidity to investors and extending ownership of their most prized assets. While limited activity in conventional exit channels to some extent facilitated this innovation, it seems to be here to stay – in the form of continuation vehicles, portfolio strip sales, and fund restructurings. Even as LP comfort and familiarity with these structures grows, alignment of interest remains paramount.

  • Will GP-led deals propel secondaries volume to another record year in 2025?
  • Has there been a bifurcation in asset quality or transaction quality?
  • Are continuation vehicles suitable for every kind of fund strategy?
  • What are the challenges that have kept GP led secondaries activity low in Japan?
  • What is the next step in private equity’s embrace of permanent capital?

 

Justin Niessner
Justin Niessner Moderator Associate Editor, AVCJ, Mergermarket
David Azcue
David Azcue Partner, Simpson Thacher
Jolie Chow
Jolie Chow Managing Director, PJT Partners
12.45 - 13.45
JST

Lunch

Sponsored by
Permira
14.15 - 15.00
JST

Buyouts: Battle royale

Take-private transactions have emerged as a significant source of large-cap buyout deal flow in Japan, alongside corporate carve-outs. Emboldened by the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s efforts to improve market efficiency and activist investors targeting corporate weakness, private equity investors are more willing to pursue public companies, almost to the point of hostility. Bandwidth – in terms of having the talent to execute deals and perhaps the debt to finance them – appears to be the major obstacle.

  • What is the split between carve-outs and take-privates in deal pipelines?

  • Do regulators need to do anything more to facilitate buyouts?

  • How is the value-creation playbook evolving for large-cap deals?

  • What are GPs doing to attract, retain, and develop talent?

15.00 - 15.30
JST

Executive address: The wave of deal activity has arrived: Who will be the winners and why

15.30 - 16.00
JST

Networking break

16.00 - 16.45
JST

LP viewpoint: Going deeper

Some larger Japanese LPs have reported a pick-up in distributions, which implies an easing in previous budget-driven constraints on new commitments. Indeed, they might be able to take advantage of the weak fundraising market globally and build relationships with traditionally hard-to-access top-tier GPs. Much rests on the ability of in-house teams and advisors, from running assessing the relevance of historical track records to the present to building diversified portfolios and participating in co-investment. 

  • How are LPs factoring macro conditions into their decision making?

  • What are the key questions in establishing whether GPs can deliver alpha?

  • Which geographies and strategies are most favoured at present?

  • What are LPs doing to develop internal skillsets?

16.45 - 17.30
JST

VC: Foundations of a global ecosystem

Venture capital in Japan has been buoyed by the emergence of several domestic unicorns, the increasing viability of business models that address global markets, and rising interest from international investors. To take the industry to the next level, investors must continue developing the local entrepreneurial ecosystem and build out networks and competencies to help emerging companies deliver on their potential, at home and overseas. A broader base of LP support would spur these efforts.

  • What can local entrepreneurs and VCs learn from their international counterparts?

  • From which segments will Japan’s next generation of unicorns emerge?

  • Why are global investors looking more closely at Japan?

  • How should investors go about forming international partnerships?

17.30 - 19.00
JST

Cocktail Reception

Sponsored by
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett
09.00 - 09.45
JST

Japan Private Equity in 2025, continuing growth?

After an all-time high in deal-making in 2023, 2024 clocked a solid JPY 3T in deal value. Bears would say it was down vs. 2023 and the excitement for Japan has dampened a bit. Bulls would point towards 2024’s deal values as firmly settling the market’s deal value at levels 4-5x those of a decade earlier, while pipelines remain strong and 2025 is off to a good start too.

Bain’s presentation explores the state of the market and its potential, with attention to the impact that some of the more recent changes, such as changes to the M&A code, are really having. Additionally, Bain will consider the implications for PE firms operating in the market, as existing firms grow their fund sizes, new entrants are building out their teams, and competition remains strong.

09.45 - 10.30
JST

Asia outlook: A question of risk and return

Assorted concerns around macroeconomics, geopolitics, and liquidity have prompted investors to shuffle their priorities in Asia, with some international players reducing their allocations to the region. While developed Asia – and to some extent India – appear to be most in favour, all sub-regional and country managers must explain why they should be part of a global portfolio. For all the risks attached to Asia, its growth profile could still translate into outsize returns. 

  • How should GPs go about communicating the Asia opportunity in 2025?

  • Is there a danger that certain geographies are being oversold?

  • To what extent are Asia’s emerging economies becoming buyout friendly?

  • How are exit channels evolving across the region?

Saurabh Chatterjee
Saurabh Chatterjee Managing Director, ChrysCapital
Samon Suwannarat
Samon Suwannarat Co-Founder / Managing Partner, 10 Bridge Capital
Pongpat Tantivashinchai
Pongpat Tantivashinchai Partner, Navis Capital Partners
10.30 - 10.55
JST

Networking break

10.55 - 11.40
JST

Japan’s mid-market: An evolving landscape

Middle market buyouts are the constant of Japan private equity, characterised by founder-succession dynamics, low entry multiples, limited competition, and ample upside through professionalisation of management. Change has typically involved a couple more participants in closely held auction processes and technology creeping into value creation plans. International interest can now be added to this mix, as GPs from China and beyond look to address an undervalued and undercapitalised market, often as partners to local managers.

  • What can GPs do to differentiate themselves from other suitors?

  • Are rising valuations making it harder to deliver attractive returns?

  • How big is the take-private opportunity for middle-market managers?

  • Are international GPs competitors, partners, or portfolio company acquirors?

Junji Yokokura
Junji Yokokura Moderator Managing Director / Head of Private Equity Financial Sponsor Coverage, KPMG FAS
Makiko Hayase
Makiko Hayase Partner, Integral
Yasunori Maeda
Yasunori Maeda Managing Director, Sunrise Capital
11.40 - 12.25
JST

Fundraising: The rise of private wealth

Japan’s wholesale investor segment, which captures a broad swath of family offices and high net worth individuals, represents an intriguing target for private equity. These groups can differ markedly from institutional investors in terms of sophistication, education, risk appetite, culture nuisances, economic objectives and liquidity requirements. Yet early movers have demonstrated there is demand for the right products. Astute marketing and cultivation of relationships with local distributors are essential to achieving breakthrough.

  • Is evergreen the best option when targeting Japan private wealth?

  • How should GPs go about engaging local distribution partners?

  • Is there scope for customisation in areas like fees, capital calls, and reporting?

  • What more can be done in terms of education and expectations management?

Shimpei Kanzaki
Shimpei Kanzaki Managing Director, Head of Japan Global Wealth, Apollo Management Japan Limited
Vincent Ng
Vincent Ng Managing Director and Co-Head of Asia, Partners Group
12.25 - 13.20
JST

Activist investors: Changing the game

Activist investor campaigns continue apace in Japan, driven by government policies pushing for better capital efficiency and corporate governance among domestic corporates. Activist proposals are increasingly being supported by other shareholders aiding breakthroughs at the board level. This is a net positive for private equity, which is seeing more deal flow through carve-outs and take-privates. However, the public attention and nature of take-private activism can result in higher prices and fierce competition. 

  • What can be learned from recent campaigns, both successes and failures?

  • How are private equity firms inserting themselves into the activism space?

  • To what extent is the activist agenda becoming more nuanced or targeted?

  • How does Japan compare to other jurisdictions in terms of activism opportunities?

Paul Ford
Paul Ford Moderator Partner, Deal Advisory, Head of Private Equity, KPMG FAS Co., Ltd
Jesper Koll
Jesper Koll Senior Adviser, Monex Group - Japan Catalyst Fund
Nicholas Smith
Nicholas Smith Japan Strategist, CLSA
13.20 - 14.20
JST

Lunch and Close of Conference

Sponsored by
Permira